Managing Change to Estimates	Rating
Neville Turbit - Project Perfect

Scope Creep

"How much do you charge, and how long does it take to do a portrait of a person?" He asked.

"I charge $100 and it takes a day to do each portrait." Said the artist.

The old man took the artist into the street and asked him how much, and how long, to paint everyone in the street. The artist looked down the street, and counted 20 people. He said

"$2,000 and 20 days."

The old man then walked him to the other end of the street.

"Now count the people."

To his surprise the artist could now see 30 people. Some were in doorways. Some couldn't be seen because they were standing behind other people. One person had been doing up a shoelace behind a car. The artist said

"Sorry, but it will cost $3,000 and take 30 days."

"I am sorry too." Said the old man. "You quoted me $2,000 so that is what you get paid, and I expect the pictures in 20 days."

"But how could I see the other people? I was only at the beginning of the street. I couldn't count what I couldn't see until I got to the end."

Does this sound familiar? How often do we count what we can see, and make an estimate based on that. Again and again, the time blows out because of what we didn't know we had to count. It is common sense to know that if we are trying to plot everything that needs to be done over several months in a project, we will not be able to see everything. We must make allowances for the unknown.

Try this exercise when explaining the concept to a person who is demanding an estimate. Ask them to write down everything that they are going to do next weekend - from midnight Friday to midnight Sunday. Allocate a time to each task. Add up all the times and see how much free time they have in the 48-hour period. Chances are you will come up with 8 or 10 hours of free time. When you ask them if they will have that time free, the usual response is

"Of course I won't have that amount of time free. The kids will need to be taken somewhere, and there will be a few people drop in or phone me, or we will decide on the spur of the moment to go out for lunch. I will be lucky to have 2 or 3 free hours."

Projects are no different. There will always be unforeseen activities. To sit down and list all the activities you know about, then allocate a time to each activity, then add up the time, will only give half the picture. If you can't see it, it doesn't mean it isn't there. So how to handle the contingency. In most organisations, contingency is a dirty word. Here are a few strategies.

Key Points:

• Contingency

• Contingency Planning

• Timeboxing

• Phase by Phase Estimating

• Historical Trends

• Summary

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